{"id":997,"date":"2021-08-15T08:35:05","date_gmt":"2021-08-15T10:35:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/?p=997"},"modified":"2021-08-24T23:06:03","modified_gmt":"2021-08-25T01:06:03","slug":"fitch-solutions-gia-quang-sat-duoi-suc-co-the-lui-ve-75-usd-tan-vao-nam-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/?p=997","title":{"rendered":"Fitch Solutions: Gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft \u0111u\u1ed1i s\u1ee9c, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00f9i v\u1ec1 75 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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  • Fitch Solutions cho bi\u1ebft, gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft \u0111ang c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u suy y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 t\u1ee5t m\u1ea1nh xu\u1ed1ng 75 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025.<\/strong><\/li>
  • N\u0103m 2025, gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 75 USD\/t\u1ea5n<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, c\u00f4ng ty nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Fitch Solutions cho bi\u1ebft \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u suy y\u1ebfu. \u0110\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 8, gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft dao \u0111\u1ed9ng quanh m\u1ee9c 175 USD\/t\u1ea5n, gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c cao h\u01a1n 200 USD\/t\u1ea5n x\u00e1c l\u1eadp h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trong n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m nay, nhu c\u1ea7u qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y luy\u1ec7n th\u00e9p Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd. Song, s\u1ee9c mua c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang d\u1ea7n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i khi c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n n\u1eb1m trong k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch k\u00edch th\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Kinh ho\u00e0n thi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n m\u1edbi gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Do \u0111\u00f3, Fitch Solutions c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 trong v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m sau. H\u00e3ng n\u00e0y d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn 170 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m nay xu\u1ed1ng 130 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022, 100 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2023 v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng t\u1ee5t xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c 75 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Hai nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Theo gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a Fitch Solutions, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e0 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i sau g\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t n\u0103m ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch COVID-19. Trong 6 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00e9p trong n\u01b0\u1edbc ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 11,4% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Tuy nhi\u00ean, song song v\u1edbi qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c kinh t\u1ebf, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh v\u1eabn t\u1eadp trung si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u00e9p \u0111\u1ec3 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau trung ho\u00e0 carbon v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2060.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 7, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng thu\u1ebf xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m th\u00e9p, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y g\u00e2y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn nhu c\u1ea7u qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft. Ngo\u00e0i ra, \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1ef7 d\u00e2n c\u0169ng \u0111ang ra s\u1ee9c n\u00e2ng cao s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n cung nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Do \u0111\u00f3, trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u00e1ng 3 – 6\/2021, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 13,9% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, trong khi nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u gi\u1ea3m 2%, theo Mining Weekly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, Fitch Solutions cho bi\u1ebft s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 Brazil v\u00e0 Australia \u0111ang d\u1ea7n c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n, gi\u00fap n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ngu\u1ed3n cung tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n n\u00e0y c\u0169ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1edbi gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trong ba n\u0103m 2018 – 2020, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Vale (Brazil), m\u1ed9t trong c\u00e1c h\u00e3ng khai th\u00e1c qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, li\u00ean t\u1ee5c ch\u1eefng l\u1ea1i. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1 cho gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y t\u0103ng n\u00f3ng, b\u00ean c\u1ea1nh nhu c\u1ea7u m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Theo Fitch Solutions, Vale \u0111ang s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i kho\u1ea3ng 330 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n\/n\u0103m, d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn con s\u1ed1 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean 343 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m v\u00e0 400 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, g\u00e3 kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 BHP (Australia) \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t kho\u1ea3ng 253 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n\/n\u0103m cho n\u0103m t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a k\u1ebft th\u00fac v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 30\/6. C\u00f2n t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n Rio Tinto (Anh – Australia) d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 325 – 340 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n cho n\u0103m t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Fitch Solutions d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft sau khi gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng ch\u1ea1m m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e1y m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 l\u00e0 55 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    C\u00f4ng ty t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n tr\u1ee5 s\u1edf t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh kho\u1ea3ng 2,4% trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2021 – 2025, sau khi gi\u1ea3m 2% trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 5 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. Theo \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft h\u00e0ng n\u0103m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u00edch t\u1eeb 378 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n l\u00ean 3,5 t\u1ef7 t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    C\u0169ng trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o, Fitch Solutions nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t c\u1ee7a qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Fitch Solutions cho bi\u1ebft, gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft \u0111ang c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u suy y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 t\u1ee5t m\u1ea1nh xu\u1ed1ng 75 USD\/t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025. N\u0103m 2025, gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 75 USD\/t\u1ea5n G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, c\u00f4ng ty nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Fitch Solutions cho bi\u1ebft \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng […]\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":998,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[75],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/997"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=997"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/997\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1000,"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/997\/revisions\/1000"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepctmhanoi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}